Homebuilders Hoping Size Doesn't Matter

This post first appeared on Minyanville and Cirios Real Estate.

After nearly 3 years of bleeding cash, US homebuilders are on shaky ground.

The market for new homes is being decimated by rampant overbuilding during the boom, and by the flood of bank-owned properties now being sold on the cheap. Prices remain in free fall. Even as labor expenses and materials costs hover around recent lows, the business of building new homes is still broken.

But after 2 “positive” datapoints last week, and KB Home's (KBH) narrower-than-expected loss, many are wondering if the worst is now behind the beleaguered industry. Government-backed efforts to keep mortgage rates low and encourage home buying could save the builders. Maybe.

New home construction, for all its complications and intricacies, is a rather simple business: Sell homes for more than it costs to build them.

New homes have traditionally carried a premium to “used” ones; the median sale price of a new home is currently about 20% higher than that of one that's been previously owned. Builders relied on this premium to cover their construction and financing costs, not to mention to generate a healthy profit. But now that buyers can buy barely used houses at fire-sale prices, the allure of the brand-new is on the wane.

Here in the San Francisco Bay Area, banks are said to literally be giving land away for free: Builders will have nothing to do with it. The costs associated with owning improved lots (in other words, lots ready for the construction of a house) are too high for - even if they're offered for free. Building just isn’t an economically viable option - and it won’t be until housing prices rebound.

And that could take years.

Meanwhile, homebuilders like KB Home and rivals Centex (CTX), Lennar (LEN) and DR Horton (DHI) are struggling to rid themselves of unsold homes. Builders large and small are slashing prices, trimming staff, hawking vacant land for pennies on the dollar, and doing anything else they can think of to stay alive.

Many face an additional headwind this year: Tax rebates from previous operating losses will be drying up. Debt remains high, and cash is barely trickling in.

Ultimately, some big builders won't make it. The market, both for equities and default protection in the form of credit default swaps, is betting on Hovnanian (HOV), Beazer Home (BZH) and Standard Pacific (SPF) to be the first of the big dogs to fail.

Those hoping to survive are rapidly adjusting their strategies to adapt to the changing demands of the American homebuyer. As Minyanville's Terry Woo noted on Friday, KB Home's better-than-expected earings were partly a reflection of a switch to smaller, cheaper homes.

This is a positive trend: it's yet another indicator that Americans have a newfound love affair with thrift. And while we may lose a few builders along the way, I doubt we'll miss all those identical, pre-fabricated houses that had come to litter our landscape.



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Builders Dislike Taste Of Own Medicine

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

Turnabout, apparently, isn’t fair play.

After years of graft, deceptive lending and millions in profits on shoddily built houses, homebuilders are getting their just desserts.

The Wall Street Journal reports that banks, under pressure from regulators and shareholders to reduce their exposure to the housing market, are backing out of construction loans en masse. Builders, for their part, are crying foul.

Construction loans are like credit cards for big development projects: As the building goes up, developers draw on the loan to buy materials, pay employees and settle up with contractors. Banks like KeyCorp (KEY), Bank of America (BAC) and now-defunct IndyMac were active in the space, particularly in boom areas like southern California.

Recently, however, plummeting home prices have called the value of such projects into question. Banks are now refusing to honor their end of the bargain. If ground hasn’t been broken or the project is only partially complete, developers are left in the lurch: They're forced to repay the loan, post cash or sell the property. If they refuse, banks can push the project into foreclosure - and developers into bankruptcy.

Construction loans often carry personal guarantees, obligating builders to pony up their own assets if a deal goes sideways. In turn, builders are taking lenders to court, arguing that they have no cause to renege on their commitments. Banks, on the other hand, argue that property values have fallen to such an extent as to make many projects uneconomical.

As long as it can find an appraiser willing to value the property at a level that supports this claim, the bank has the upper hand. Finding an appraiser willing to do their bidding isn’t hard to do, since they value properties based on what their clients (i.e. banks) want.

The fact that builders are being forced into financial shackles by questionable appraisals does have a touch of morbid irony. During the boom, big developers like Centex (CTX), KB Home (KBH) and Lennar (LEN) built homes, then lent borrowers money to buy them. Since they controlled the loan origination process, they ordered appraisals from cronies who inflated the prices. Builders reaped the benefits, while homeowners got stuck with a home they paid far too much for.

Now that they’re on the other side of the fence, developers don’t find the game quite as fun. "If banks want to get out of residential lending, that's fine; let's sit down and figure it out," said one builder. "But that isn't being done. The rug is literally being pulled from under us and games are being played."

While banks may be acting in bad faith, minimizing their exposure to risky loans by any means necessary, it's doubtful that courts will find against them. Judges are already buried under foreclosure filings stemming from the irresponsible actions of builders gone wild.

So builders shouldn't expect much by way of sympathy.